The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions: Evidence from the 1992-97 British Electoral Cycle
نویسنده
چکیده
Economic theories of voting argue that party popularity and vote are heavily influenced by the performance of the economy. Research supporting these theories typically employs crosssectional data, however, making inferences about causal direction questionable. This paper evaluates the micro-foundations of economic theories of voting and party popularity using extensive panel data. We explore the dynamic relationships between party support and retrospective economic perceptions—both egocentric and sociotropic—through the 1992-97 British electoral cycle. Our findings suggest that sociotropic economic perceptions were strongly conditioned by prior opinions of the incumbent Conservative Party. More importantly, once their temporal relationship is taken into account, sociotropic economic perceptions only weakly effect incumbent party popularity. Retrospective egocentric economic perceptions, on the other hand, appear to neither affect nor be influenced by party support. These findings indicate that cross-sectional models are likely to overstate the importance of economic considerations for voting.
منابع مشابه
Are British Muslims alienated from mainstream politics by Islamophobia and British foreign policy?
This paper uses the 2010 Ethnic Minority British Election Study to look at the political attitudes of Muslims in Britain. It tests the relationship between political alienation and political participation on the one hand, and Islamophobia and disapproval of British military involvement in Afghanistan on the other. The principal findings are that perceptions of Islamophobia are linked to greater...
متن کاملThe Political Budget Cycle is Where You Can't See It: Transparency and Fiscal Manipulation
We investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance. The recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies. In contrast, we show, conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency, that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a feature...
متن کاملTransparency, Political Polarization, and Political Budget Cycles in OECD Countries
We investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance. While some recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies, in contrast we show, conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency, that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a f...
متن کاملNeoliberalism and the Unfolding Patterns of Young People’s Political Engagement and Political Participation in Contemporary Britain
Recent trends suggest that young people in Britain are increasingly rejecting electoral politics. However, evidence suggests that British youth are not apolitical, but are becoming ever more sceptical of the ability of electoral politics to make a meaningful contribution to their lives. Why young people are adopting new political behaviour and values, however, is still a point of contention. So...
متن کاملPolitics and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States: Cycles and Long-Run Outcomes
One of the main empirical conclusions of the political business cycle literature is that economic growth and employment in the United States tend to fall after the election of a Republican administration, and increase following Democratic victory. Because Republican administrations also exhibit lower interest rates and inflation than Democrats, it has been argued that their constituents favor l...
متن کامل